Pharmaceutical industry in Long-term Uncertain Market: An Empirical Research Based on Time Series Model

Abstract

The outbreak of covid-19 pandemic has brought a huge tide to the financial market across the globe, due to the fluctuation in the performance of a variety of sectors, it kept vacillating in the investors’ opinions, resulting in a drastic fall in the stock market, but pharmaceutical companies were excluded from the main trend. This paper is going to discuss whether the fluctuation in the medical market will be affected by the covid-19 pandemic and then assume the long-term performance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies under the influence of the pandemic. The main analytical methods that have been applicated are the series model, the order of VAR Model, the ARMA-GARCH Model and impulse and response analysis. Finally, we will draw our conclusion that under that if another sudden outbreak can be prevented, the long-term performance of the medical industries will have minor damage from the pandemic. The study provides investors and leaders in the industry with a front-sight of future market performance. We suggest that the medical industry needs to learn from experience to maintain the rise in performance, and the investors can also put faith in them, believing that the overall performance of the pharmaceutical market will not let them down.