PGDRT: Prediction Demand Based on Graph Convolutional Network for Regional Demand-Responsive Transport

Abstract

To provide an efficient demand-responsive transport (DRT) service, we established a model for predicting regional movement demand that reflects spatiotemporal characteristics. DRT facilitates the movement of restricted passengers. However, passengers with restrictions are highly dependent on transportation services, and there are large fluctuations in travel demand based on the region, time, and intermittent demand constraints. Without regional demand predictions, the gaps between the desired boarding times of passengers and the actual boarding times are significantly increased, resulting in inefficient transportation services with minimal movement and maximum costs. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a regional demand generation prediction model that reflects temporal features for efficient demand response service operations. In this study, a graph convolutional network model that performs demand prediction using spatial and temporal information was developed. The proposed model considers a region’s unique characteristics and the influence between regions through spatial information, such as the proximity between regions, convenience of transportation, and functional similarity. In addition, three types of temporal characteristics—adjacent visual characteristics, periodic characteristics, and representative characteristics—were defined to reflect past demand patterns. With the proposed demand forecasting model, measures can be taken, such as having empty vehicles move to areas where demand is expected or encouraging adjustment of the vehicle’s rest time to avoid congestion. Thus, fast and efficient transportation satisfying the movement demand of passengers with restrictions can be achieved, resulting in sustainable transportation.