Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.