Abstract
Industrial development and active development of resources in the territory of the fragile Arctic ecosystem requires proper control of technological processes at enterprises located in these areas. Analysis and subsequent modelling of oil and oil products spills are performed in order to elaborate preventive measures concerning emergencies, means and methods of their liquidation being constantly ready to ensure safety of people and territories, as well as to reduce damage and losses as much as possible in case of their occurrence. The methods of oil product spill area assessment used at present, especially in the Arctic zone, have a number of limitations. This article presents modelling of the process of oil products spill to calculate pollutants concentration distribution and prediction of pollution area up to the moment of its localization with the application of neural network methods. The empirical results were got with NeuroPro neural network simulator and the PHOENICS software product were chosen. The simulation results were correlated with the data obtained in the analysis of an accident caused by depressurization of an aircraft fuel transfer pipeline from on an oil-loading pier on a river in the Arctic zone of Krasnoyarsk Krai.
Highlights
The Arctic zone is a unique and fragile ecosystem and habitat of many rare species of flora and fauna
There were used software products PHOENICS [10] and NeuroPro 0.25 developed at the Institute of Computational Modelling of the KSC SB RAS [11]
The data were derived from the databases of from the Main Directorate of Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia in Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Agency for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Fire Safety of Krasnoyarsk Krai
Summary
The Arctic zone is a unique and fragile ecosystem and habitat of many rare species of flora and fauna. It is an area which is rich in natural resources, with extensive exploration and industrial extraction of resources, which in turn increases the technogenic load on the ecosystem and the risks of emergencies. The analysis of accidents at oil storage facilities allows us to point out some general and special regularities of their occurrence. According to our analysis of accidents their main causes are (Figure 1): 8; 2% 9; 9%
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