Abstract
Disentangling the past magnitudes of the opposing forces of increased resource scarcity and advances in drilling technology will help to clarify the implications of alternative development paths. Economic analysis documents that these opposing forces are probably quite large for petroleum well drilling, but it does not separate the factors as well as expected. It does show that earlier analyses by Norgaard, Fisher, and Copp ignored or assumed away some key factors. Development costs are significantly affected by the level of drilling activity and exploratory success in each region, but the regional data are too aggregated to provide the information sought. 16 references, 7 tables.
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