Pest Event Scheduling System for Biological Monitoring and Pest Management 1

Abstract

A computer-based system was developed to aid in the prediction of the occurrence of insect pests throughout Michigan. Two prediction systems were linked through computer software with sampling, weather data, temperature threshold, and biological information into a pest biological scheduling system (BIOSCHED). The first prediction system involves biological information for an array of pest events (e.g., first emergence) that are placed on computer files. These historical files contain records of field-observed events, the corresponding accumulation of degree-days, and the life stage of the pest. The second prediction system linked by BIOSCHED is the Predictive Extension Timing Estimator (PETE), which utilizes curve-filling techniques to predict pest events. A computer software system accesses current degree-days for each of the 61 Michigan weather stations and scans each pest's historical data record. Each time a pest event is predicted to occur within the range of the degree-day accumulations for a station, a record is written on a table indicating that the pest should be in a particular life stage at that station. The table produced by this method records the pest name, host crop, county, and weather station. This information is placed on the Pest Management Executive System (PMEX) and is used by field staff to assist in monitoring pest abundances and to optimize pest management decision making.