Pessimistic explanatory style in the historical record: CAVing LBJ, presidential candidates, and East versus West Berlin.

Abstract

The habitual way people explain causes (explanatory style) as assessed by questionnaire has been used to predict depression, achievement, and health, with a pessimistic predicting poor outcomes. Because some individuals whose behavior is of interest cannot take questionnaires, their can be assessed by blind, reliable content analysis of verbatim explanations (CAVE) from the historical record. We discuss three examples of CAVing archival material First, shifts to a more optimistic in Lyndon Johnson's press conferences predicted bold, risky action during the Vietnam War, whereas shifts to pessimism predicted passivity. Second, analyses of presidential nomination acceptance speeches from 1948 to 1984 showed that candidates who were more pessimistically ruminative lost 9 of the 10 elections. Third, and its relation to depressive signs was considered at a societal level. There were more behavioral signs consistent with depression among workmen in East Berlin than in West Berlin bars. This finding corresponded to a comparatively more pessimistic in East Berlin newspaper reports concerning the 1984 Winter Olympics. We suggest that pessimism and its consequences can be quantified and compared, not only in contemporary individuals but also across time and culture. Can pessimism and its consequences be measured across historical periods and cultures? One tool for measuring pessimism is the habitual way people explain the events that befall them, their explanatory style as found in archival documents. One way to measure the consequences of pessimism is to observe the symptoms of learned helplessness--passivity, poor achievement, and depressive signs--as they are found in the historical record. With these tools we can try both to test theories of and to predict real-world behavior over historical periods and across cultures. In this article, we first present the theoretical background and describe our tools. In doing so, we detail a new method, the content analysis of verbatim explanations (CAVE), which allows blind, reliable ratings of archival material for style. Then we present three brief examples: President Johnson and the Vietnam War, prediction of who will win modern presidential elections, and pessimism in East and West Berlin. Our story begins with and its relation to learned helplessness.