Perturbation-based moment equation approach for flow in heterogeneous porous media: applicability range and analysis of high-order terms

Abstract

We present detailed comparisons between high-resolution Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and low-order numerical solutions of stochastic moment equations (SMEs) for the first and second statistical moments of pressure. The objective is to quantify the difference between the predictions obtained from MCS and SME. Natural formations with high permeability variability and large spatial correlation scales are of special interest for underground resources (e.g. oil and water). Consequently, we focus on such formations. We investigated fields with variance of log-permeability, σ Y 2, from 0.1 to 3.0 and correlation scales (normalized by domain length) of 0.05 to 0.5. In order to avoid issues related to statistical convergence and resolution level, we used 9000 highly resolved realizations of permeability for MCS. We derive exact discrete forms of the statistical moment equations. Formulations based on equations written explicitly in terms of permeability ( K-based) and log-transformed permeability ( Y-based) are considered. The discrete forms are applicable to systems of arbitrary variance and correlation scales. However, equations governing a particular statistical moment depend on higher moments. Thus, while the moment equations are exact, they are not closed. In particular, the discrete form of the second moment of pressure includes two triplet terms that involve log-permeability (or permeability) and pressure. We combined MCS computations with full discrete SME equations to quantify the importance of the various terms that make up the moment equations. We show that second-moment solutions obtained using a low-order Y-based SME formulation are significantly better than those from K-based formulations, especially when σ Y 2>1. As a result, Y-based formulations are preferred. The two triplet terms are complex functions of the variance level and correlation length. The importance (contribution) of these triplet terms increases dramatically as σ Y 2 increases above one. We also show that one of the triplet terms is much more important than the other. When comparing K-based MCS with Y-based SME, model differences must be taken into consideration. These differences (model errors) are due to embedded assumptions and differences in implementing the discrete forms of the equations.