PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI VS EKSPOR SEKTORAL INDONESIA PASKA OIL BOOM: UJI KAUSALITAS DAN STUDI KOMPARATIF DENGAN THAILAND DAN MALAYSIA

Abstract

The changing of Indonesia’s industrialization policy from inward oriented (import substitution) to outward oriented (export oriented) strategy has delivered Indonesia success in increasing its export within two last decade. Moreover, this strategy also has changed the composition of Indonesia’s export from primary based products (oil and agriculture) to secondary based products (manufacture). This study examines how so far the causality relationship between national income of Indonesia and export by sector (agriculture, oil, and manufacture), and than comparing this with Thai and Malaysia as LDCs in Asian. By using Granger’s causality test modified by Hsio’s criteria on quarterly data from 1982.1 – 2002.4, this paper concludes: (1) Indonesia’s national income influences its industrial export positively, (2) Thai’s national income influences its agricultural export positively, and (3) Malay’s industrial export influences its national income positively, and Malay’s national income influences its industrial export negatively. The result of this study shows that the change of structural transformation from primary based export (agriculture and oil) to secondary based export (manufacture) in stimulating economic growth has been achieved by Malaysia. In contrast, this strategy is not occurred in Indonesia and Thailand. In the other word, export for Indonesia and Thailand is just a progressive process in stimulating economic growth, not to be an essential factor in constructing economic growth. Keywords: Economic Growth, Export, Structural Transformation