Perspectives on total phosphorus response in rivers: Examining the influence of rainfall extremes and post-dry rainfall

Abstract

Eutrophication is a significant environmental problem caused by nutrient loads from both point and non-point sources. Weather variables, particularly precipitation, affect the concentration of nutrients in water bodies, particularly those from non-point sources, in two contrasting ways. Heavy precipitation causes surface runoff which transports pollutants to rivers and increases nutrient concentration. Conversely, increased river flow can dilute the concentration, lowering it. This study investigates the impact of extreme precipitation, prolonged precipitation, and precipitation after a dry period on the total phosphorus concentration in the Moehne and Erft rivers in Germany, given the projected increase in frequency of extreme precipitation events and long drought periods due to climate change. The study comprises two parts: selecting extreme weather days from 2001 to 2021 and comparing observed Total Phosphorus concentrations with estimated concentrations derived from Generalized Additive Models and linear regression based on the discharge-concentration relationship. Changes in river TP concentration in response to continuous precipitation and precipitation after a dry period were also studied. Our results showed that during wet extreme and post-dry period rainfall events, TP concentration consistently surpassed expected values, underscoring the profound influence of intense rainfall on nutrient mobilization. However, we observed the impact of continuous rainfall to be non-unidirectional. Our work is distinguished by three key innovations: 1) addressing limitations in studying the effects of extreme weather on water quality due to limited temporal resolution, 2) incorporating both linear and non-linear modeling approaches for discharge-concentration relationships, and 3) performing a comprehensive analysis of temporal and spatial patterns of Total Phosphorus concentrations in response to varying rainfall patterns.