Abstract
The relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations is non-stationary in observations as well as in historical simulations of climate models. Is this non-stationarity due to changes in effects of external forcing or internal atmospheric processes? Whilst ENSO is an important oceanic forcing of Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations, its impacts cannot explain the observed long-term changes in the Indian–East Asian summer rainfall relationship. Monte Carlo test indicates that the role of random processes cannot be totally excluded in the observed long-term changes of the relationship. Analysis of climate model outputs shows that the Indian–North China summer rainfall relationship displays obvious temporal variations in both individual and ensemble mean model simulations and large differences among model simulations. This suggests an important role played by atmospheric internal variability in changes of the Indian–East Asian summer rainfall relationship. This point o...
Highlights
Given the high demand for water supply in the populous countries of South and East Asia, the variability and prediction of summer rainfall in these regions has long been of great concern
As there are no yearto-year changes in the SST forcing, the long-term change in the above relationship in the AGCM simulation is attributable to the impacts of internal atmospheric variability
The relationship between summer rainfall variations over India and East Asia displays long-term changes in both observations and climate model simulations, and there are different perspectives on what may have contributed to these long-term changes
Summary
Given the high demand for water supply in the populous countries of South and East Asia, the variability and prediction of summer rainfall in these regions has long been of great concern. The other pathway is atmospheric circulation change over the midlatitudes of continental Asia, featuring a zonal wave pattern (Guo and Wang 1988; Kripalani, Kulkarni, and Singh 1997; Krishnan and Sugi 2001; Wang, Wu, and Lau 2001; Kim et al 2002; Lu, Oh, and Kim 2002; Wu 2002; Enomoto, Hoskins, and Matsuda 2003) This zonal wave pattern is partly associated with anomalous Indian heating, and in turn modulates winds over East Asia (Wu 2002; Wu, Hu, and Kirtman 2003; Ding and Wang 2005; Liu and Ding 2008; Greatbatch, Sun, and Yang 2013).
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