Perspectives démographiques chinoises à 1'horizon 2000

Abstract

This paper tries to reconstruct the demographic evolution of China during the past 30 years, in the light of new data recently published by Chinese sources. At the end of 1979 China had a population of 1970 million, a birth rate of 18/1000, a mortality rate of 6/1000, and a growth rate of 12/1000; the Chinese population which was 540 million in 1949, the year of the Liberation, was already 642 million by the end of 1957. The demographic evolution of the past 30 years can be summed up in 5 phases: 1) 1950-57, marked by a natural growth rate of 10-24/1000, due mainly to a significant decrease in mortality; fecundity was about 5 children/woman; 2) 1958-61; very little is known about those years, the period of the "great leap forward"; there was undoubtedly a marked decrease in birth rate due to starvation-caused amenorrhea, and a marked decrease in mortality rate, resulting in a natural growth rate of only 5/1000; 3) 1963-64, with a natural growth rate of 33.5/1000, and mortality decreases again; 4) 1965-70, with a birth rate of 35/1000 and a mortality rate down to 7-8/1000; these are the years of the Cultural Revolution and the demographic problem is underrated in comparison to the political situation; 5) 1970-on; fertility rate is at its lowest, 2.3, and the slogan is "2 children/couple". The characteristics of China's population in 1979 are not very different from those of 1953; 38.5% of the population is in the age group 0-15, and there are 410 million dependent young people as compared to 60 million dependent old people; survival rate is 65.7% and infant mortality has fallen to the level of that in developed countries. The Communist Party made public its directives in 1979: 1 child/couple, reduction of natural growth rate to 5/1000 by 1985 and zero population growth by the year 2000; should these directives become real, China will have a population of 1050 million inhabitants by the year 2000. The level of education in China is still low despite the doubling and tripling of the number of schools at every level; the current reduction in birth rate will show in the classrooms only in about 12 years' time. The active population includes almost the totality of the population over 17, with the majority employed in the agricultural section; the internal gross product has increased 60 times in the past 26 years; still, unemployment exists and it becoming a serious problem. Demographic aging is still much below the level of developed countries. The real problem will become apparent in 1982-93, when the mass of the people born between 1962-73, about 300 million people, will become adults and will be looking for jobs.