Perspective: an exercise to explore the future impact of new technologies

Abstract

New technologies have the potential to drastically change the way people and firms conduct business. But the future is difficult to predict, and the inherent uncertainty of a new technology’s impact can be troubling. This article describes an exercise that has participants evaluate a 1937 U.S. Government sponsored technology forecast. The forecast identified thirteen inventions that were predicted to have a significant impact on society during the subsequent 10–25 years. These inventions included the television, facsimile machine, mechanical cotton picker, and trailer homes, among others. Participants in the exercise are challenged to evaluate the accuracy of the 1937 forecast, and develop and understanding of the issues inherent in predicting the future impact of new technologies. They are then challenged to identify today’s new technologies, and make predictions regarding these technologies’ future impact. Today’s new technologies may change important aspects of everyday life over the next few decades, and significantly influence the competitiveness of certain firms. The exercise illustrates how difficult it can be to anticipate the future impact of new technologies. New technologies take time to develop, and most forecasts are overly optimistic regarding the rate of development and adoption. New technologies can also develop in ways not anticipated, and a new technology may have uses that are difficult to foresee. These challenges notwithstanding, it is still important to regularly track new technologies and attempt to anticipate their potential impact. The greatest danger comes not from having inaccurate predictions of the future impact of new technologies, but from having not thought about the potential impacts. The exercise was developed for use in an executive MBA program to encourage participants to think beyond the budgets and deadlines that drive much of their regular work activity. It was designed to challenge them to reevaluate whether they, and their firm, were thinking about how new technologies might impact their industry. The exercise has the greatest impact and applicability when conducted at corporate programs or with Executive MBA students, but can be used in a typical MBA or MS program as well. It can be conducted in a three-four hour session, or over multiple shorter sessions.