Personalized decision support system for tailoring IgA nephropathy treatment strategies

Abstract

BackgroundThe ongoing debate surrounding the use of immunosuppressive treatments for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) underscores the demand for personalized and effective strategies. MethodsAnalyzed data from 807 IgAN patients over 5+ years using three methods: Random Forest with molecular biomarkers, network biomarkers with graph engineering, and an auto-encoder model. All models were trained using identical demographic, clinical, and pathological data, employing an 80–20 split for training and testing purposes. ResultsIn the comprehensive assessment of IgAN prognosis, the Random Forest model, employing molecular biomarkers, demonstrated strong performance metrics (AUC = 0.83, sensitivity = 0.51, specificity = 0.96). However, traditional graph feature engineering on patient-specific networks outperformed these results with an AUC of 0.90, sensitivity of 0.64, and specificity of 0.94. The Auto-encoder model showed the best accuracy (AUC = 0.91, sensitivity = 0.46, specificity = 0.96). The findings highlighted the superior predictive capabilities of network biomarkers over molecular biomarkers for adverse renal outcome prediction in IgAN. Consequently, we integrated Auto-encoder-derived Network Biomarkers with Random Forest Models to enhance prognostic precision in diverse IgAN treatment scenarios. The prediction for the prognosis of patients receiving supportive care, glucocorticoid therapy, and immunosuppressant treatment yielded AUC values of 0.95, 0.96, and 1, respectively, indicating high specificity. Drawing from these insights, we pioneered the development of an innovative decision support model for IgAN treatment. This model demonstrated the ability to make medical decisions comparable to those by experienced nephrologists, enabling the customization of personalized disease management strategies. ConclusionOur system accurately predicted IgAN prognosis and evaluated various treatment efficacies, aiding physicians in devising optimal therapeutic strategies for patients.