Abstract

Spells of cold (hot) days in winter (summer) were defined as sequences of days with minimum (maximum) temperature at least one standard deviation below (above) the mean daily minimum (maximum) temperature, as observed during 40 years (1930–40, 1946–74) at the Aristotelian University in Thessaloniki, Greece. Winter cold spells were best fitted by a geometric (Markov) model, summer hot spells by a logarithmic one. Skill scores were 0.42 to 0.80 for forecasting cold days, 0.24 to 0.77 for hot days, from the respective models.

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