Abstract
The complexity of a system recorded in time series data can be measured statistically using permutation entropy (PE). The state of a system (e.g. regular, chaotic, random, etc.) that underlies the appearance of variations in time series can be determined with PE. Since volcanoes are considered as the complex dynamical system controlled by interactions of many processes. Permutation entropy can be applied to study the system mechanism of volcano. We utilized PE to study system mechanism of Kelud volcano in 2007 dome-forming eruption period, from 3 (KWH; KLD; UMBK) seismic stations with different distances from the crater lake. Then, we want to compare the results. The result of study shows that the PE pattern for each station is different. The unique PE pattern that can be used as an eruption precursor is only shown at KWH and KLD stations. This pattern began to appear 2.7 days before the eruption on 3 November 2007. Data from UMBK station doesn’t show unique PE pattern. The factors such as sensor distance from magmatic activity center, size, and type of eruption probably influenced the final PE result. Using PE as the addition to volcano monitoring can maximize efforts in mitigation activities.
Highlights
One of the Quaternary active and hazardous volcanoes in Java Island, Indonesia is Kelud volcano (1731 m above sea level) [1]
Position of Kelud volcano is surrounded by Kawi and Butak volcanoes situated at the east of Kelud volcano, and Arjuno-Welirang volcano that located at the northeast of Kelud volcano (Fig. 1)
permutation entropy (PE) value from 270 Julian date or 27 September to 304 Julian date end presents the state of volcano system on the maximum complexity during that period
Summary
One of the Quaternary active and hazardous volcanoes in Java Island, Indonesia is Kelud volcano (1731 m above sea level) [1]. Based on Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVHGM) records, Kelud volcano has history of explosive and effusive eruptions. Explosive eruption of Kelud volcano usually was shortlived period and initiated by phreatomagmatic eruption, followed by explosive magmatic eruptions [3]. According to eruptive records after 1000, explosive eruptions of the volcano have occurred in 1586; 1901; 1919; 1951; 1966; 1990; 2014 with explosive events of VEI between 3 to 5 [3]. For effusive eruptions of the volcano formed a lava dome. Effusive dome-forming eruption events have occurred in 1376; 1920; 2007 [3]. The VEI scale of effusive eruption was not bigger compared to explosive eruption
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