Permanent migration desire of Chinese rural residents: Evidence from field surveys, 2006–2015

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the actual and intended migration patterns of permanent rural-urban migration in China based on local field surveys conducted from 2006–2015. The actual permanent migration pattern shows a home province dominance. The pattern of permanent migration intentions indicates a simultaneous consideration for both city location and city scale. Interest in large cities is limited to large cities within the home province. Using survey questions that present hypothetical policy scenarios, rural residents' responses to the relaxation of urban hukou restrictions and the rural land rights institution are examined. The responses reveal a reluctance to engage in inter-provincial permanent migration if hukou restrictions are eliminated in all Chinese cities. A survey-based choice experiment reveals that removing the condition of rural land rights on rural hukou status can induce within-province permanent migration, but it is not impactful in facilitating permanent, inter-provincial migration. If the playing field of hukou entry is leveled for all skill levels and rural land rights are guaranteed unconditionally, then at low values of years of schooling, an additional year has a negative effect on the intention to engage in permanent, inter-provincial migration.