Periprocedural risk factors for incomplete radiofrequency ablation of liver metastases from colorectal cancer: a single-center retrospective analysis

Abstract

Objective To explore independent risk factors for incomplete radiofrequency ablation (iRFA) of colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) and evaluate adverse outcomes following iRFA. Materials and Methods Magnetic resonance imaging data of CRLM patients who received percutaneous RFA were randomized into training (70%) and validation set 1 (30%) data sets. An independent validation set 2 was derived from computed tomography scans. Uni- and multivariate analyses identified independent risk factors for iRFA. Area under the curve (AUC) values were used to evaluate the predictive model performance. Risk points were assigned to independent predictors, and iRFA was predicted according to the total risk score. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to assess new intrahepatic metastases (NIHM), unablated tumor progression, and overall survival (OS). Results Multivariate regression determined as independent iRFA risk factors perivascular tumor location, subcapsular tumor location, tumor size ≥20 mm, and minimal ablative margin ≤5 mm. The AUC values of the model in the training set, validation set 1, and validation set 2 were 0.867, 0.772, and 0.820, respectively. The respective AUC values of the total risk score were 0.864, 0.768, and 0.817. During the 6-year follow-up, the cumulative OS was significantly shorter in the iRFA than in the complete RFA group, and NIHM (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.79; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.725, 4.513) and unablated tumor progression (HR = 3.473; 95% CI: 1.506, 8.007) were more severe. Conclusions Perivascular tumor location, subcapsular tumor location, tumor size ≥20 mm, and minimal ablative margin ≤5 mm were independent risk factors for iRFA. iRFA may be a potential predictor of NIHM, unablated tumor progression, and OS.