Periodisation of Poland’s economy 2007–2019

Abstract

In each country, in the economy observed over long periods of time, usually we can find some developmental phases due to socioeconomic changes, globalization, political decisions, and unexpected events. The identification of such phases, their duration, turning points in the trends of macroeconomic indicators, and some other early signals comprise interesting goals for research. The aim of this paper is to find homogeneous phases in the economic development of Poland from 2007–2019. Eight monthly variables were used, including data on labour markets, salaries, inflation, manufacturing, retail sales, exports, and the overall business climate. This multidimentional time-series dataset was partitioned using cluster analysis methods, namely Ward’s agglomerative method and k-means. Seven sub-periods have been found and they are illustrated by segmented trends and displayed as models and graphs. Economic interpretation of the developments in the phases is explained and interpreted below. Looking at the periods that have been found, one can consider the quality of economic and political decisions, both within the world in general and the European economic situation. This paper presents original periodisation of Poland’s economy and is based on real monthly data with the use of a clustering approach to multidimensional time series.