Periodicity of Earth development for forecasting the next manifestations of disaster floods

Abstract

Catastrophic floods on the rivers of the Western region of Ukraine occur with a frequency of 6–12–19 years. The last two floods of 2008 and 2020 caused significant damage to landscapes, economic infrastructure, and the population. In 2008 and 2020 alone, more than 20,000 houses were destroyed in 420 settlements in Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Zakarpattia and Vinnytsia regions. More than 300 km of roads, 600 km of fortifications and 350 bridges were washed away. In 2008, 19 people died, including 5 children. Similar floods occurred in 1911, 1927, 1941, 1955, 1969, 1980, 1988. Therefore, it is important to study the causes of floods, the possibility of forecasting and warning to prevent and overcome the devastating effects. Therefore, on January 1, 2021, a separate structural subdivision was created at the Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas (IFNTUOG) – the Center for Forecasting and Prevention of Technogenic and Hydroecological Danger of Prykarpattia (CFPTHDP). Materials and research methods were developed even earlier, since 2008, at the Dniester Engineering-Ecological Research-Training-Production Anti-Flood Landfill IFNTUOG by the staff of the Department of Ecology under the guidance of the author of the article. This is a systematic analysis of geological structure, geophysical fields, geomorphological and paleographic features, taking into account the data of archeology, dendrochronology, chronicle, historical and instrumental epochs of observations for 1881–2020. Forecasting, ie what area will be covered by the flood; prediction of its activity, ie at what maximum height the water will rise; and the weather forecast – when it will happen. The first two parts of the triad are predicted with a probability of 75–80%, but the third – so far, only 50%.