Periodicity in midwest US climatic data: the Hale cycle signal or the luni-solar signal?

Abstract

Cohen and Sweeter (1975) found the 20 to 22-year Hale (double sunspot) cycle signal in the maximum entropy spectra of sunspot and Atlantic tropical cyclone data. Currie (1996) corroborated and extended their analysis, but he argued that this signal is the 18.6-year luni-solar tidal constituent. Currie maintains that Cohen and Sweeter mistakenly conjectured that this long term periodicity was induced by the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal. However, no further investigation of periodicity in the extracted wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal was conducted. In this study, we follow Currie's signal processing procedures to extract the wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal. In order to investigate the periodicity in the extracted wave forms, multi-taper method (MTM) is used for harmonic analysis. Band pass filters are then designed to extract the wave forms corresponding to the individual components identified in the MTM harmonic analysis. The investigation results of the monthly precipitation and Palmer's drought severity index (PDSI) data in three of the midwestern states – Illinois, Indiana and Ohio – show that two periodic components, the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal and the other component with periods between 16.9 and 13.5 years, are identified. The bistability phenomenon, which Currie found in these wave forms, is more likely to result from the superposition of these two periodic components, rather than from a nonlinear mechanism. Besides, a periodic component with an approximate period of 33 years is detected.