Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter

Abstract

Time variation in impact probability is studied by assuming that the periodic flux of the Oort Cloud comets within 15 au arises from the motion of the Sun with respect to the Galactic mid-plane. The periodic flux clearly shows up in the impact rate of the captured Oort Cloud cometary population, with a phase shift caused by the orbital evolution. Depending on the assumed flux of comets and the size distribution of comets, the impact rate of the Oort Cloud comets of 1 km in diameter or greater is from 5 to 700 impacts Myr−1 on the Earth and from 0.5 to 70 impacts per 1000 yr on Jupiter. The relative fractions of impacts are 0.09, 0.11, 0.26 and 0.54 for long-period comets, Halley type comets, Jupiter family comets and near-Earth objects, respectively. For Jupiter, the corresponding fractions in the first three categories are 0.18, 0.31 and 0.51. If we consider physical fading of comet activity that is compatible with the observations, then the impact rates of active comets are two orders of magnitude smaller than the total impact rates by all kinds of comets and cometary asteroids of size 1 km or greater.