Periodic repolarization dynamics as a risk predictor after myocardial infarction: Prospective validation study

Abstract

Periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD) is a novel electrocardiographic phenomenon that refers to sympathetic activity-associated low-frequency modulations of cardiac repolarization. Retrospective post-myocardial infarction (MI) studies revealed that increased PRD indicates an increased risk of subsequent death. This is the first prospective study to validate PRD in patients after MI receiving up-to-date treatment. Four hundred fifty-five survivors of MI (age ≤80 years) in sinus rhythm were enrolled. PRD was assessed from 20-minute electrocardiographic recordings (2048 Hz) and prospectively dichotomized at 5.75 deg2. Primary and secondary end points were total mortality and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Multivariable analyses additionally included Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score (dichotomized at >140), left ventricular ejection fraction (dichotomized at ≤35%), diabetes mellitus, and deceleration capacity of heart rate (dichotomized at ≤2.5ms). The prognostic power of PRD was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, Cox regression analysis, and the integrated discrimination improvement index. During a median follow-up period of 27 months, 47 patients died. Twenty-three of these deaths were classified as cardiovascular. Increased PRD was significantly associated with both end points, yielding areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 69.3% (60.2%-77.8%) and 79.1% (69.7%-86.7%) for total mortality and cardiovascular mortality, respectively (P < .001 for both). In multivariable analysis, increased PRD indicated a 2.2- and 9.5-fold risk of total mortality and cardiovascular mortality (P = .024 and P = .003, respectively). Addition of PRD to the models significantly improved the integrated discrimination improvement index for total (P = .047) and cardiovascular mortality (P = .007). PRD is a strong and independent predictor of total mortality and cardiovascular mortality in patients after MI treated with contemporary therapy.