Peri-urban growth into natural hazard-prone areas: mapping exposure transformation of the built environment in Nairobi and Nyeri, Kenya, from 1948 to today

Abstract

Kenya experiences massive urban growth, also into natural hazard-prone areas, exposing settlements and the natural environment to riverine and pluvial floods and other natural hazards. While Nairobi as the capital and principal city has been extensively analysed regarding urban growth and flood hazard in some central parts, awareness of growing peri-urban areas has not been studied as much. The results are of interest to other locations in Kenya and worldwide, too, since the current research and disaster risk practice focus is still too much on megacities and city centres. Therefore, the study compares urban growth into hazard areas in urban rims of Nairobi and Nyeri, Kenya. A change assessment from 1948 to 2020 is conducted by aerial images, declassified satellite images, and recent data. Urban growth rates are 10- to 26-fold, while growth into flood exposed areas ranges from 2- to 100-fold. This study reveals unused opportunities for expanding existing land-use change analysis back to the 1940s in data-scarce environments.