Perfusion Computerized Tomography Can Predict Pancreatic Necrosis in Early Stages of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

The mortality rate associated with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) with necrosis remains high because early prediction of pancreatic necrosis is difficult. We evaluated whether perfusion computerized tomography (CT), which is used to identify early stage ischemia in the brain, could detect ischemic changes in the pancreas in the early stages of SAP and predict development of necrosis. Thirty consecutive patients with a diagnosis of SAP according to the Atlanta criteria and whose score was greater than 6 were enrolled in this study. All patients were hospitalized within 3 days after onset of symptoms indicative of acute pancreatitis and underwent perfusion CT. Three weeks later, all patients underwent conventional contrast-enhanced CT to detect progression of their disease. Perfusion CT showed that 10 of the 30 patients had pancreatic ischemia at the time of diagnosis. Contrast-enhanced CT disclosed that pancreatic necrosis developed in 9 of these 10 patients, but not in the 20 patients who did not have pancreatic ischemia. The sensitivity and specificity of perfusion CT for predicting pancreatic necrosis was calculated to be 100% and 95.3%, respectively. Perfusion CT is a useful tool for early detection of ischemic changes in the pancreas that lead to pancreatic necrosis.