Performance Study of Global Circulation Model HADCM3 Using SDSM for Temperature and Rainfall in North-Eastern Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper describes application of a statistical downscaling model to study the performance of the global circulation model HADCM3 (Hadley centre coupled model, version 3) for the Sylhet and Moulvibazar districts (North-eastern region) of Bangladesh. Predictors of HADCM3 have been downscaled by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Daily observed temperature and rainfall data from 1981 to 2006 was used to conduct the calibration and 2007 to 2011 was used for validation using SDSM. Percent of bias (PBIAS), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and modified index of agreement are also used for the assessment of downscaled temperature and rainfall data. PBIAS of downscaled temperature is the least (-0.30%), NSE (0.80) and modified index of agreement (0.83) is the highest for daily maximum temperature at Sylhet station. Among five rainfall stations, PBIAS of downscaled rainfall is the least (1.31%), NSE (0.76) and modified index of agreement (0.79) is the highest at Kanairghat station. The downscaled temperature and rainfall data approximately agree with the observed data. Keywords: Temperature; Rainfall; SDSM; Downscaling; Validation; PBIAS; NSE. © 2014 JSR Publications. ISSN: 2070-0237 (Print); 2070-0245 (Online). All rights reserved. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jsr.v6i1.16511 J. Sci. Res. 6 (1), 87-96 (2014)