Abstract
ABSTRACT What is the probability of collapse of tall steel braced frame buildings under San Andreas earthquakes in the next 30 years? Using more than 38000 ground motion histories from simulations of 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault with magnitudes in the range of 6–8, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building is conducted to address this question. Results are combined with the 30-year probabilities of the scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance-based earthquake engineering framework to determine the exceedance probabilities of five performance limit states over the next 30 years.
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