Performance Prediction of Durum Wheat Genotypes in Response to Drought and Heat in Climate Change Conditions.

Marco Dettori,Pierpaolo Duce,Valentina Mereu,Carla Cesaraccio

doi:10.3390/genes13030488

Marco Dettori, Pierpaolo Duce + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/genes13030488

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Abstract

With an approach combining crop modelling and biotechnology to assess the performance of three durum wheat cultivars (Creso, Duilio, Simeto) in a climate change context, weather and agronomic datasets over the period 1973–2004 from two sites, Benatzu and Ussana (Southern Sardinia, Itay), were used and the model responses were interpreted considering the role of DREB genes in the genotype performance with a focus on drought conditions. The CERES-Wheat crop model was calibrated and validated for grain yield, earliness and kernel weight. Forty-eight synthetic scenarios were used: 6 scenarios with increasing maximum air temperature; 6 scenarios with decreasing rainfall; 36 scenarios combining increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. The simulated effects on yields, anthesis and kernel weights resulted in yield reduction, increasing kernel weight, and shortened growth duration in both sites. Creso (late cultivar) was the most sensitive to simulated climate conditions. Simeto and Duilio (early cultivars) showed lower simulated yield reductions and a larger anticipation of anthesis date. Observed data showed the same responses for the three cultivars in both sites. The CERES-Wheat model proved to be effective in representing reality and can be used in crop breeding programs with a molecular approach aiming at developing molecular markers for the resistance to drought stress.

Highlights

With an approach combining crop modelling and biotechnology to assess the performance of three durum wheat cultivars (Creso, Duilio, Simeto) in a climate change context, weather and agronomic datasets over the period 1973–2004 from two sites, Benatzu and Ussana (Southern Sardinia, Itay), were used and the model responses were interpreted considering the role of Dehydration Responsive Element-Binding (DREB) genes in the genotype performance with a focus on drought conditions
Our study shows a negative impact of harsh scenarios on grain yield for all cultivars and sites
This study highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary approach involving the use of crop modelling and biotechnology in order to predict and evaluate the performances of durum wheat genotypes under climate change conditions

Summary

Introduction

Climate change has already affected food security in several regions, with negative impacts especially at lower latitudes, while at high latitudes positive impacts have been recorded for some crops [2]. Released global projections of crop yields show an emergence of climate impacts (before 2040) on the major breadbasket regions, with larger losses for maize, soybean and rice and additional gains for wheat [3]. The projected positive effect for wheat is mainly due to the stronger CO2 response of C3 crops with respect to C4 crops and the expected increase in wheat yields at high latitudes that are currently limited by non-optimal minimum air temperatures [3]. The negative impact of climate change on yields is very likely due to heat stress, increased plant water demand causing a higher transpiration rate, and a shortened growing period as well as anticipated maturity [16–22]

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