Performance Prediction and Heating Parameter Optimization of Organic-Rich Shale In Situ Conversion Based on Numerical Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Algorithms.

Abstract

In situ conversion technology is a green and effective way to realize the development of organic-rich shale. Supercritical CO2 can be used as a good heating medium for shale in situ conversion. Numerical simulation is an important means to explore the shale in situ conversion process, but it requires a lot of time and computational cost for in situ conversion simulation under different working conditions. Therefore, a computational framework for rapid prediction of shale in situ conversion development performance and heating parameter optimization is proposed by coupling artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results indicated that kerogen pyrolysis and hydrocarbon product release mainly occurred within 2 years of shale in situ conversion. The production curves of pyrolysis hydrocarbon obviously slowed after in situ conversion for 2 years. The database was constructed by a large number of in situ conversion simulations, and Pearson correlation analysis and the random forest method were adopted to obtain seven main controlling factors affecting reservoir temperature and hydrocarbon production. The determination coefficient of the obtained ANN-based prediction models is higher than 97%, and the mean square error (MSE) is lower than 0.3%. The basic reservoir case can choose to inject 350-450 °C supercritical CO2 (Sc-CO2) fluid with a rate of 600 m3/day to obtain a more promising development effect. The heating parameter optimization for three typical reservoir cases using PSO was performed, and reasonable injection temperature and injection rate were obtained. It realized accurate development prediction and rapid heating parameter optimization, which helps the effective application of shale in situ conversion development design.