Performance optimization of criminal network hidden link prediction model with deep reinforcement learning

Abstract

The scale of criminal networks (e.g. drug syndicates and terrorist networks) extends globally and poses national security threat to many nations as they also tend to be technologically advance (e.g. Dark Web and Silk Road cryptocurrency). Therefore, it is critical for law enforcement agencies to be equipped with the latest tools in criminal network analysis (CNA) to obtain key hidden links (relationships) within criminal networks to preempt and disrupt criminal network structures and activities. Current hidden or missing link predictive models that are based on Social Network Analysis models rely on ML techniques to improve the performance of the models in terms of predictive accuracy and computing power. Given the improvement in the recent performance of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) techniques which could train ML models through self-generated dataset, DRL can be usefully applied to domains with relatively smaller dataset such as criminal networks. The objective of this study is to assess the comparative performance of a CNA hidden link prediction model developed using DRL techniques against classical ML models such as gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). The experiment results exhibit an improvement in the performance of the DRL model of about 7.4% over the next best performing classical RF model trained within 1500 iterations. The performance of these link prediction models can be scaled up with the parallel processing capabilities of graphical processing units (GPUs), to significantly improve the speed of training the model and the prediction of hidden links.