Abstract

BackgroundThis study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was performed from January 2011 to August 2013 in the intensive care unit of a private tertiary referral center in the Philippines. Predicted ICU mortality was calculated using the SAPS 3 global model. Observed versus predicted mortality rates were compared, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated. The discrimination and calibration characteristics of the SAPS 3 system to predict ICU mortality were assessed.ResultsA total of 2,426 patients were included. The observed ICU mortality was 277 (11.42%). The SAPS 3 global model had fair to good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (CI 0.78–0.81). Good calibration was seen with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit at Ĉ = 11.51 (p = 0.175). Standardized mortality ratio was 0.36 (0.26–0.81).ConclusionThe global SAPS 3 prediction model showed fair to good discrimination and good calibration in predicting mortality in our intensive care unit. Different levels of discrimination and calibration across the different subgroups analyzed suggest that overall ICU performance seemed to be affected by case mix variations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2052-0492-2-29) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Highlights

  • This study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit

  • The Simplified Acute Physiology (SAPS) 3 admission score is one of these models used to predict hospital mortality from admission data taken within the first hour of the patients' admissions

  • This study aims to assess the performance of the SAPS 3 in its ability to predict ICU mortality among critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to a Philippine intensive care unit from 2011 to 2013

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Summary

Introduction

This study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit. The Simplified Acute Physiology (SAPS) 3 admission score is one of these models used to predict hospital mortality from admission data taken within the first hour of the patients' admissions. From this score, global and region-specific equations for hospital mortality have been derived [3]. Global and region-specific equations for hospital mortality have been derived [3] The performance of this model has shown mixed results among different case mixes in different studies [3]

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