Performance of the Global Forecast System's medium-range precipitation forecasts in the Niger river basin using multiple satellite-based products

Haowen Yue,Vahid Nourani,Mekonnen Gebremichael

doi:10.5194/hess-26-167-2022

Abstract

Abstract. Accurate weather forecast information has the potential to improve water resources management, energy, and agriculture. This study evaluates the accuracy of medium-range (1–15 d) precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) over watersheds of eight major dams (Selingue Dam, Markala Dam, Goronyo Dam, Bakolori Dam, Kainji Dam, Jebba Dam, Dadin Kowa Dam, and Lagdo Dam) in the Niger river basin using NASA's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) Final Run merged satellite gauge rainfall observations. The results indicate that the accuracy of GFS forecast varies depending on climatic regime, lead time, accumulation timescale, and spatial scale. The GFS forecast has large overestimation bias in the Guinea region of the basin (wet climatic regime), moderate overestimation bias in the Savannah region (moderately wet climatic regime), but has no bias in the Sahel region (dry climate). Averaging the forecasts at coarser spatial scales leads to increased forecast accuracy. For daily rainfall forecasts, the performance of GFS is very low for almost all watersheds, except for Markala and Kainji dams, both of which have much larger watershed areas compared to the other watersheds. Averaging the forecasts at longer timescales also leads to increased forecast accuracy. The GFS forecasts, at 15 d accumulation timescale, have better performance but tend to overestimate high rain rates. Additionally, the performance assessment of two other satellite products was conducted using IMERG Final estimates as reference. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) merged satellite gauge product has similar rainfall characteristics to IMERG Final, indicating the robustness of IMERG Final. The IMERG Early Run satellite-only rainfall product is biased in the dry Sahel region; however, in the wet Guinea and Savannah regions, IMERG Early Run outperforms GFS in terms of bias.

Highlights

Global climate forecasts, with lead times ranging from hours to several months, are becoming increasingly available (Saha et al, 2014; Haiden et al, 2021; NCEP, 2015; JMA, 2019)
The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of medium-range precipitation forecasts derived from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the major reservoir dams of the Niger basin through comparison against IMERG Final
The 1 d GFS tends to overestimate in the wet Guinea region of the basin, whereas both IMERG Early and CHIRPS give values that are very close to IMERG Final

Summary

Introduction

Global climate forecasts, with lead times ranging from hours to several months, are becoming increasingly available (Saha et al, 2014; Haiden et al, 2021; NCEP, 2015; JMA, 2019). Significant societal benefit could be realized from research to reduce common barriers in climate forecast utilization that block the path to improving water resources management, energy, and agriculture. One such a barrier is the lack of understanding of climate forecast accuracy in different regions of the world. This focus is timely, given the recent advances in numerical atmospheric models and in the wealth of new observing capabilities, including satellite remote sensing. The Niger river is the principal river of West Africa and is shared among nine riparian countries (Fig. 1), namely Benin, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union

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Conclusion