Performance of the Emergency Surgery Score in Nonelective Lower-Extremity Endovascular Procedures

Abstract

IntroductionMultiple studies have validated the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) as a tool which reliably predicts outcomes after emergency general surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of the ESS for lower-extremity endovascular procedures in nonelective setting (neLEE). MethodsThe American College of Surgeons’ National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was retrospectively analyzed for patients undergoing neLEE between 2015 and 2019. The performance of the ESS in predicting mortality in each procedure was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. ResultsFour thousand five hundred and eighty three patients underwent neLEE with median age 68 (±12.3 SD), with 1802 females (39.3%). The ESS correlated with 30-day mortality (area under the curve [AUC] was 0.729), discharge to rehab (AUC 0.638), renal failure (AUC 0.667), postintervention ventilation requirement (AUC 0.680), and stroke (AUC 0.656). The predictive ability of the ESS decreased with increasing age, with the ESS performing best for patients between 60 and 69 y in age (AUC 0.735) and worst for patients above 80 y (AUC 0.650). A Cochran–Armitage test showed linear trend towards increased 30-day mortality among the quartiles with increasing ESS (P < 0.001), with patients with ESS ≥10 having 10 times odds of increased 30-day mortality compared to reference quartile of patients with ESS ≤4 on multivariate analysis. ConclusionsThe ESS score is associated with 30-day mortality and other complications after neLEE procedures. It can potentially be used as a predictive tool for preoperative risk stratification and can also be used for equitably evaluating standards and outcomes after lower extremity endovascular procedures.