Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index.

John Nairn,Bertram Ostendorf,Peng Bi

doi:10.3390/ijerph15112494

Abstract

The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.

Highlights

There is an increasing need to refine policies to address climate change and future heatwave risks
Until recently the wider community in Australia has relied upon heatwave length as a suitable measure for heatwave impact
The historical perspective of heatwave impact has been demonstrated by ranking severity peak and load

Summary

Introduction

There is an increasing need to refine policies to address climate change and future heatwave risks. Heatwave impacts to human health have been established as a global phenomenon [1]. Chronic heatwave impacts have been demonstrated in Australia, where a 2002 study [2] estimated. 1000 people per year over the age of 65 die from heat related deaths. Numerous extreme events have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people, which has led to the conclusion that heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard [3]. Extreme heatwaves became internationally notorious following a 2003 European heatwave when France recorded 15,000 excess deaths [4]. Heatwaves extract a heavy toll upon vulnerable people and communities. Human health aspects of the very young, old aged, mental health, underlying disease and social disadvantage contribute to heatwave vulnerability

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion