Performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for assessing wind resource in Greece

Abstract

This study presents the evaluation of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), with respect to the simulation of wind. Numerical simulations were carried out for a 1-year period, focusing on Greece, a study area that constitutes a challenging testbed due to its highly complex terrain. Wind measurements, derived from a network of surface synoptic weather stations, were employed for assessing model performance. The evaluation procedure focused on investigating the ability of the model to reproduce the basic features of the wind field over Greece, as well as on examining its capacity with regards to reproducing the wind resource. Results suggest an overall satisfactory model performance. In particular, the computed model errors were found to be within acceptable ranges, suggesting overestimation of weak and underestimation of strong winds. Seasonal variations of model performance were evident, along with differentiations depending on whether continental or maritime areas were considered. The wind resource of the study area, represented by the Weibull probability density function, was reproduced adequately well in the numerical simulations, while the spatiotemporal variations of the average monthly wind speed were also captured well.