Performance evaluation of machine learning algorithms in predicting dew point pressure of gas condensate reservoirs

Abstract

Accurate knowledge of the dew point pressure for a gas condensate reservoir is necessary for optimizing mitigation operations during field development plan. This study explores the use of machine learning models in predicting the dew point pressure of gas condensate reservoirs. 535 experimental dew point pressure data-points with maximum temperature and pressure of 304 °F and 10,500 psi were used for this analysis. First, a standard multiple linear regression (MLR) was used as a benchmark for comparing the performance of the machine learning models. Multilayer perceptron Neural Networks (MLP) [optimized for the number of neurons and hidden layers], Support Vector Machine (SVM) [using radial basis function kernel] and Decision Tree [Gradient boost Method (GBM) and XG Boost (XGB)] algorithms were used to predict the dew point pressure. The performance of these algorithms was then compared with results obtained from published machine learning models. The input parameters for the model include; gas composition, specific gravity, the molecular weight of the heavier component and compressibility factor. The performances of these algorithms were analysed using root mean square error (RMSE), absolute average relative deviation percentage (AARD %) and coefficient of determination (R2).