Performance evaluation of lightning potential index and flash count using WRF microphysical parameters over Rajasthan and West Bengal, India

Abstract

Accurate lightning prediction stands as a pressing global challenge, demanding robust solutions for safeguarding lives and valuable assets. In this study, we employ the mesoscale numerical model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW, version 4.0.3), to conduct numerical simulations of lightning occurrences during the 2021 monsoon season in Hooghly (on 07 June) and Jaipur (on 11 July). These events resulted in 31 and 11 casualties, respectively. The WRF model is integrated at horizontal resolutions of 9 km and 3 km for both regions, utilizing six-hourly NCEP-FNL datasets at a 0.25º resolution. The primary objective of this inquiry is to identify the most suitable microphysics scheme among WSM-6, NSSL-2, and MORRISON for a comprehensive assessment of lightning activity. Model performance is meticulously evaluated through skill scores, including Equitable Threat Score (ETS), False Alarm Rate (FAR), Accuracy (ACC), and Probability of Detection (POD), focusing specifically on hourly rainfall. Furthermore, a comprehensive spatial evaluation assesses the Lightning Potential Index and lightning flash count using the McCaul Method. The model-simulated results effectively depict lightning conditions in both regions, showing slight spatial and temporal discrepancies compared to observational datasets. Validation of the simulated lightning flash count is accomplished using data from the Lightning Detection Network (LDN) operated by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The NSSL-2 microphysical scheme demonstrates noteworthy efficacy in identifying lightning occurrences in both regions. Rainfall representations correspond remarkably well with Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data, indicating precipitation levels of 20–40 mm and 70–80 mm in Jaipur and Hooghly, respectively. The NSSL-2 microphysics scheme exhibits commendable proficiency, with consistently high model skill scores (ACC and POD ∼0.9) for lightning events. This study signifies a significant step toward the development of an operational lightning warning system, offering the potential to substantially reduce the risks associated with lightning occurrences. Consequently, such a system has the capacity to enhance safety and preparedness measures for regions affected by lightning phenomena.