PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF IONOSPHERIC TEC FORECASTING MODELS USING GPS OBSERVATIONS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES

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Abstract. In this paper, Holt-Winters model, ARMA model and ARIMA model in time series analysis were used to predict total electron content (TEC). Taking ionospheric grid data of quiet period and active period in different longitude and latitude provided by IGS center as sample data, the TEC data of the first 8 days were used to build four kinds of prediction models and forecast TEC values of the next 6 days, and the results were compared with the observations provided by IGS center. The prediction effects of the four models in different ionospheric environments and different longitude and latitude are emphatically analyzed. The experimental results showed that the average relative accuracy of ARMA, ARIMA and Holt-Winters models in the quiet and active ionospheric periods for the prediction of 6 days was 89.85% in the quiet period, and 88.76% in the active period. In both periods, the higher the latitude, the lower the RMS value. In addition, VTEC from IGS center value and ARMA model and ARIMA model and Holt - Winters in the quiet period and active forecast VTEC values were compared, in the quiet period or active, four models of forecasting value can better reflect the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of TEC three latitude, the prediction results of the ARIMA model can better reflect the spatial and temporal variation characteristics; But compared with the active period, the prediction results of calm period are relatively good.