Performance Evaluation of Five GIS-Based Models for Landslide Susceptibility Prediction and Mapping: A Case Study of Kaiyang County, China

Yigen Qin,Jin Xie,Yunwu Wu,Kunpeng Lu,Qianzheng Sun,Genlan Yang

doi:10.3390/su13116441

Abstract

This study evaluated causative factors in landslide susceptibility assessments and compared the performance of five landslide susceptibility models based on the certainty factor (CF), logistic regression (LR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), coupled CF–analytic hierarchy process (CF-AHP), and CF–logistic regression (CF-LR). Kaiyang County, China, has complex geological conditions and frequent landslide disasters. Based on field observations, nine influencing factors, namely, altitude, slope, topographic relief, aspect, engineering geological rock group, slope structure, distance to faults, distance to rivers, and normalized difference vegetation index, were extracted using the raster data model. The precision of the five models was tested using the distribution of disaster points for each grade and receiver operating characteristic curve. The results showed that the landslide frequency ratios accounted for more than 75% within the high and very high susceptibility zones according to the model prediction, and the AUC evaluating precision was 0.853, 0.712, 0.871, 0.873, and 0.895, respectively. The accuracy sequencing of the five models was CF-LR > CF-AHP > LR > CF > AHP, indicating that the CF-AHP and CF-LR models are better than the others. This study provides a reliable method for landslide susceptibility mapping at the county-level resolution.

Highlights

Introduction iationsLandslides occur when gravity and other geologic forces move surface material downward along a slope; often, landslides cause loss of human life and property or environmental damage [1,2,3,4]
The results show that the evaluation results using the CFmodel or the 16.94% in the logistic regression (LR) model
This study applied all five of these modeling approaches to the same area (Kaiyang County, China) to map landslide susceptibility and compared the results obtained from the analyses

Summary

Introduction

Introduction iationsLandslides occur when gravity and other geologic forces move surface material downward along a slope; often, landslides cause loss of human life and property or environmental damage [1,2,3,4]. In China, many areas have been critically affected by landslides in recent years. This severely hinders the sustainable development of society and the economy and threatens the safety of people’s lives and property [5,6,7,8]. Susceptibility assessment of landslides is the first step in the hazard and risk assessment of landslides [11]. It includes summarizing the characteristics, distribution rules, spatial density, and sensitivity that influences factors of regional landslides to complete a sensitivity assessment and develop a sensitivity zoning map [12].

Methods

Results

Conclusion