Abstract
The Hydro-Meteorological Centre (CMI) of the Environmental Protection Agency of Liguria Region, Italy, is in charge of the hydrometeorological forecast and the in-event monitoring for the region. This region counts numerous small and very small basins, known for their high sensitivity to intense storm events, characterised by low predictability. Therefore, at the CMI, a radar-based nowcasting modelling chain called the Small Basins Model Chain, tailored to such basins, is employed as a monitoring tool for civil protection purposes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of this model chain, in terms of: (1) correct forecast, false alarm and missed alarm rates, based on both observed and simulated discharge threshold exceedances and observed impacts of rainfall events encountered in the region; (2) warning times respect to discharge threshold exceedances. The Small Basins Model Chain is proven to be an effective tool for flood nowcasting and helpful for civil protection operators during the monitoring phase of hydrometeorological events, detecting with good accuracy the location of intense storms, thanks to the radar technology, and the occurrence of flash floods.
Highlights
We want here to estimate the overall reliability of the model chain and its usefulness from a more operative point of view, which is why we focus on discharge threshold exceedances, i.e., those that provide a clearly visible signal to the operator during the event (Section 2.1), anticipation times on these exceedances and event-related impacts on the territory
Analysis 1: Nowcast Discharge Performance with Respect to Observed Discharge. In this first phase the comparison is of purely modelling type: the performance of the forecast flow with respect to observed flow was estimated, in terms of correct forecast, false alarm and missed alarm rates
The Small Basin Model Chain is a radar-based flood nowcasting chain employed in the Liguria region for event monitoring in basins with drainage areas lower than 15 km2, numerous in the region
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The Liguria Region, located on the North-West coast of Italy, has been affected by several flash floods which have caused significant losses in terms of human lives, livelihoods, damages to the environment, property and infrastructure. The two most severe flash floods in recent memory in this region occurred on 25 October and 4 November. As a result of these two flood events, 19 persons died and tens of millions of euros in damages to property and infrastructure were recorded [1]. The Liguria region is a hilly and mountainous area and counts a large number of small and very small basins: more than
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