Performance Evaluation Method of Online Supply Chain Finance Logistics Enterprises Based on GARCH-VAR

Abstract

In recent years, China’s core enterprises have been plagued by high operating costs, difficult bank loans, and other practical problems in the supply chain. As a new financing model emerged in recent years, it has opened up new markets in finance and logistics industry and brought new ideas and vitality to all parties in the supply chain. Since the strengthening of supervision, the operation of the industry has gradually changed to the direction of normalization. The study of online loan interest rate fluctuation is helpful to understand the source and characteristics of online loan risk, which has important reference significance for China’s Internet lending market. The measurement of interest rate risk can help to monitor market risk in time and improve financial supervision. This paper takes the online loan interest rate under the background of supervision as the research object, combining theoretical analysis and empirical research to explore the characteristics of interest rate fluctuations and the reasons behind the P2P online loan, and discusses the online loan business model. Based on the influencing factors of interest rate fluctuation, this paper analyzes the main characteristics of network loan interest rate from the aspects of interest rate trend interval distribution, regional distribution, and background distribution. This paper adopts the daily closing price data of domestic R insurance company to establish the daily logarithmic return rate series of stock prices. The results show that (1) GARCH-VAR model can effectively reflect the stock price fluctuation and market risk degree of the insurance company; (2) the company’s VAR showed a trend of first rise and then slight decline, with the highest VAR in 2018; and (3) the interpretation of VAR value should be combined with financial indicators. The increase in net profit rate will also lead to the decline of VAR value in the next period. Based on this, countermeasures and suggestions for market risk management are proposed for insurance companies.