Performance estimation of Ntaruka hydropower plant and its comparison with the prediction results obtained by SPSS

Abstract

Hydroelectricity has long been used in Rwanda. The Ntaruka hydropower plant was constructed during the colonial period in the northern part of Rwanda and it is still in operation. This paper evaluates the annual performance of this power plant and highlights several factors, which are vital for future predictions in the energy generation. Literature search and review coupled with energy generation analysis and forecasting were used for the study. Data were collected through site visits and discussions with the staff of the Rwanda Energy Group. Analysis were made by considering some performance factors of the power plant such as net capacity factor, plant use factor, power factor, voltage profile, frequency profile, general energy profile, and annual energy generation profile taking cognizance of hydropower plant installed capacity. Based on the available monthly operation hours of the power plant and its annual energy generation data between 2011 and 2014, predictions were made using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPPS version 20.0) to forecast future energy generation for the power plant. Results show that the annual energy generation of the power plant varies between 1277 and 4524 MWh, with an average of 2912 MWh within the above years, which is much closer to the average real energy generation obtained between 2011 and 2015 and, therefore, the power plant is in good operating condition. Further research is recommended to consider using staffing levels, plant availability factors, and economic efficiency to determine the economic effectiveness and performance indices of the hydropower plant.