Performance Analysis of Wind Power Prediction using ANFIS and Gaussian-SVM

Abstract

Wind energy is one of the most economical sources of renewable electricity, with the largest resources available in the world. It is one of the most promising sources of clean energy and extends its reach to electricity production. Today, wind technologies are making a significant contribution to the growing clean electricity market worldwide. The rapid growth of wind energy and the increase in wind energy production require serious research in various fields. Because wind energy depends on time, it is variable and intermittent on different time scales. Therefore, accurate wind energy prediction is considered an important contribution to the reliable integration of large scale wind energy. Wind energy forecasting methods can be used to plan the ownership, planning and delivery of activities by network operators to maximize electricity traders' revenues. The increasing prevalence of wind power in power plants raises important questions arising from their intermittent and uncertain nature. These challenges require a precise prediction tool for wind power generation to plan the efficient operation of electrical systems and ensure reliability of supply. In this research work two classifier’s performance are evaluated on the real-time dataset. The accuracy of the models has been measured using four performance metrics namely, the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE). From the result analysis it has been concluded that gaussian SVM outperforms better as compared to the ANFIS model. The result is analysed on different testing dataset of different seasons and averaged error is used to analyse the performance measures.