Performance analysis of the lisflood hydrological model in a flood event in the madeira river basin

Abstract

The largest recorded flood of the Madeira River (largest tributary of the Amazon River) occurred in 2014, remaining above the flood level for 90 days, reaching the maximum level on March 30, at 19.69 m. Among the various tools capable of assisting in monitoring and forecasting floods are hydrological models, such as LisFlood, a distributed hydrological model of the rainfall-runoff type. Thus, the objective of this research was to evaluate the performance of the LisFlood model for maximum flows in the Madeira River basin. There were a total of 7 river gauge stations calibrated and subsequently validated, distributed across 5 sub-basins. The calibration process was carried out using a multi-objective method, applying the NSGA II as an optimization algorithm, with the model's performance being evaluated by the NSE and KGE metrics. The calibration and validation results demonstrated, in general, that the LisFlood model performed well between the simulated and observed flow values for the Madeira River basin. The average of the 07 stations analyzed was 0.81 for KGE and 0.69 for NSE, for the calibration process. In validation, the average metrics were 0.78 in KGE and 0.67 in NSE. In relation to the historic flood event that occurred in 2014, it can be seen that the model followed the maximum flow peak observed at the Porto Velho station, with a difference in the simulated flow of 17% lower than the observed flow, for the year 2014, demonstrating good efficiency of LisFlood in simulating maximum flow. Thus, the study demonstrated that the application of the LisFlood model in large basins is effective in simulating maximum flows, satisfactorily simulating extreme flood peaks.