Perceptions of Threat, Trust in Government, and Policy Support for the War in Iraq

Abstract

Public perceptions of security threats and the impact that these perceptions have on the level of popular support for related policies are mediated by the level of public trust in the national government. Constraints on information about terrorism and war increase the importance of signals received from national government as individuals assess threats and evaluate counter-threat policies. Individuals are critical consumers of information. Rather than uniformly accepting elite signals or partisan cues, they interpret and respond to government signals about ongoing threat differently depending on the degree to which they trust the government. Nation-wide panel surveys of Americans during the last three years of the George W. Bush Administration demonstrate that changes in the level of trust in the national government regarding the threat of terrorism and the war in Iraq have significant impacts on perceptions of threat and levels of policy support for U.S. counter-terrorism and war-fighting policies. These effects vary depending on whether trust in the government is defined in terms of trust in the objectivity and truthfulness of the information it provides, trust in the integrity of the politicians not to exploit that information for political or partisan purposes, and trust in the efficacy government policy. Unpacking the concept of trust in government helps to clarify when and how changes in trust are likely to affect the government’s ability to shape public opinion and mobilize public support for its policy initiatives.