Perceptions of Racial Group Size in a Minority-majority Area

Abstract

Americans overestimate the size of minority groups and underestimate the size of the majority. Research on perceived racial group size, however, has focused on areas where non-Hispanic whites are dominant and has neglected to examine the impact of group conflict attitudes other than perceived threats. This study examines perceptions of group size in Harris County, Texas, in 2007, which became a minority-majority area by 2006. It also examines whether perceived racial discrimination influences perceived group size. Analyses demonstrate that people underestimate the size of the largest group, which in this case is the local Hispanic population. The sizes of the black and Asian populations, by contrast, are overestimated while estimates of the white population are accurate. Race and perceived discrimination play important roles in shaping perceptions of group size. Perceptions of group size are also based on the objective size of these groups, but are unrelated to recent changes in group size.