Perceptions of opinion poll credibility: The role of partisan bias

Abstract

What determines the credibility of opinion polls, and for whom? Opinion polls assessing voting intention are an increasingly prominent aspect of pre-election media discourse, yet they often vary in terms of their estimations, who conducted the poll, and where the poll is ultimately published. This research note considers the determinants of pre-election poll credibility when citizens are exposed to conflicting polls, contributing to a growing field which considers the subjectivity with which partisan-relevant information is perceived in polarised contexts. Using a conjoint analysis in Turkey, this paper produces strong evidence that polls are perceived differently across partisan lines. Whereas government supporters rely almost exclusively on a poll’s result, opposition supporters place considerably more weight on the media source when determining poll credibility.