Perception to Adaptation of Climate Change in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model

Arun Gc,Jun-Ho Yeo

doi:10.3390/sci2040087

Abstract

This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, and estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among, adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, were found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation options were found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of the impact of dependent variables in different models, and for the available adaptation options, were found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.

Highlights

Climate change is having an affect worldwide; developing, landlocked and island countries, like Nepal, are most vulnerable [1,2] the contribution of these countries is negligible [3,4]
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) incorporated Climate Action as a separate goal (Goal 13), recognizing notions such as its potential to undermine economic gains, its greater impact in developing countries, and the fact that over 100 million people may become poor and hungry by 2030 if urgent action is not taken, which was not included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) [5]
Climate change perception was assessed among farmers using three climatic variables instead of asking directly whether they were perceiving it

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is having an affect worldwide; developing, landlocked and island countries, like Nepal, are most vulnerable [1,2] the contribution of these countries is negligible [3,4]. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) incorporated Climate Action as a separate goal (Goal 13), recognizing notions such as its potential to undermine economic gains, its greater impact in developing countries, and the fact that over 100 million people may become poor and hungry by 2030 if urgent action is not taken, which was not included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) [5]. Acknowledging the unique cause and effect relationship between agriculture and climate change, agriculture is the prime concern in the study of climate change. It contributes one-third of all Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions; among this, 86% is anthropogenic [6]. The sector will be responsible for feeding over nine billion people by 2050 [8]

Results

Discussion

Conclusion