Abstract
A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2018 to assess the perception of households on drought forecasts and its impact on crop and livestock losses. A total of 300 households from seven districts in East Nusa Tenggara Indonesia were considered. The study indicated that the majority of the households are poor families with low education background. They sold poultry for income generation during drought events. The survey revealed that only small percentage of the households usied forecast to support their livelihood management. The statistical test confirmed that the use of forecast did not necessarily impacted the crop loss. However, the crops were significantly affected by the response to drought forecast. Households that changed their agricultural practice experienced significantly different losses than households that did not do anything differently to their crops. The households argued that the accuracy of the forecasts issued by the government was very low. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers and government authorities provide more accurate forecasts and a better strategy to increase household awareness of using drought forecasts.
Highlights
Drought has became a major threat in poor rural communities in developing countries
This paper presents the results of a cross-sectional study in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as one of the regions affected by severe drought for more than a decade
We found that the response to forecasts has a significant impact on the total loss of crops. People who changed their agricultural practice had significantly lower crop loss than people who tried to obtain more information or did not do anything differently. These findings show that the perception about the importance of weather and seasonal drought forecasts is essential to minimise the negative impact of drought
Summary
Drought has became a major threat in poor rural communities in developing countries. Numerous studies have found that drought frequency will increase and the magnitude of droughts will be greater in the future due to climate change. This paper presents the results of a cross-sectional study in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as one of the regions affected by severe drought for more than a decade It investigates the perception of weather and seasonal drought forecasts and its impact on livelihood. The perception in this case refers to the adoption to the forecast technology leading to the usage the forecast product It is part of a broader study aimed to assess households' perception of drought and its impact as well as their adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering the essential impact of weather and seasonal drought forecasts on livelihood, this paper assessed the household perception of forecasts and its impact on livelihood in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. A statistical test is applied to determine differences in the livestock lost between households that used forecasts and those that did not, as well as among different types of responses to drought
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