Perception of survival and overconfidence: The case of Najib Razak (2009–2018)

Abstract

This article aims to examine political decision-making by focusing on how leaders’ motivation to maintain power affects their perception of political survival. Such motivation however is susceptible to judgment bias. Built on political psychology, accountability may help leaders improve their cognitive complexity or make them resort to cognitive shortcuts. Where leaders end up in the cognitive spectrum depends on the type of audiences to whom they feel accountable: core (i.e. ruling elites and loyal voters) and external (i.e. the opposition and its supporters) audiences. Preoccupation with the former may prompt leaders to downplay the latter’s challenges. Moreover, leaders’ understanding of their support base may be mistaken—that core audiences may shift their allegiance to the opposition. The result is overconfidence. Analysing Najib Razak’s leadership (2009–2018), I argue that Najib’s perception of survival stemmed from his perceived unwavering loyalty towards core audiences, invulnerability as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) standard-bearer and the weakness of the opposition. Unfortunately, his overconfidence resulted in Barisan Nasional’s (BN) defeat in GE14.